Betfred.com World Championship 2010: Tournament Preview – Part Three

Part three of my Betfred.com World Championship preview sees me look at the prospects of world number two Stephen Maguire, 2002 world champion Peter Ebdon and Antrim’s Mark Allen amongst others…

Before I get onto the matches themselves, a quick word of thanks to Jim who has provided me with the head to head statistics for each of the matches.

To view the previous parts of this preview, please click here:

Match Nine: Stephen Maguire (2) vs Stephen Lee (25)

World number two Stephen Maguire has previously said that he is desperate to win the World Championship title by the time he is 30 and this year will be his last chance as he meets another former Crucible semi-finalist Stephen Lee at the last 32 stage…

Head to Head

The head to head record between these two makes for interesting reading as although Stephen Maguire leads 3-2 overall, the two defeats that he has suffered against Lee have been startlingly one-sided. The first came at the Irish Masters during 2003/4 when Lee ran out a 5-0 winner before he went one better during the 2006 Masters at Wembley with a 6-0 victory at the last 16 stage!

Maguire’s wins meanwhile were far closer, 5-3 at the 2002 British Open, 6-4 at the European Open during the following season and 9-4 at the 2004 UK Championship.

Crucible History

Maguire:

2004 – R32, lost 10-6 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2005 – R32, lost 10-9 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2006 – R16, lost 13-4 to Marco Fu
2007 – SF, lost 17-15 to John Higgins
2008 – QF, lost 13-12 to Joe Perry
2009 – QF, lost 13-8 to Neil Robertson

Lee:

1995 – R32, lost 10-8 to Nigel Bond
1997 – R16, lost 13-7 to James Wattana
1998 – R16, lost 13-8 to Ken Doherty
1999 – QF, lost 13-6 to John Higgins
2000 – R16, lost 13-8 to Fergal O’Brien
2001 – R16, lost 13-12 to Peter Ebdon
2002 – QF, lost 13-10 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2003 – SF, lost 17-8 to Mark Williams
2004 – R32, lost 10-7 to Lee Walker
2005 – R16, lost 13-9 to Peter Ebdon
2006 – R16, lost 13-9 to Neil Robertson
2007 – R32, lost 10-7 to Mark Selby
2008 – R32, lost 10-4 to Joe Swail
2009 – R32, lost 10-4 to Ryan Day

Season So Far

Maguire’s season has been solid if not spectacular as while he was able to reach the semi-finals of both the UK Championship and the Welsh Open, he was not able to progress beyond the last 16 of the other three ranking events and as a result finds himself down in 6th place provisionally. He did though win the first event of the doomed Pro Challenge Series at the Northern Snooker Centre in Leeds at the start of the campaign.

For Lee meanwhile it has been another year of inconsistency as three last 48 exits have been offset to a degree by a run to the last 16 of the UK Championship and a comprehensive victory over Mike Dunn to qualify for this event.

Why Maguire Will Win

Although he has not recently hit the heights of his excellent 2007/8 season, Stephen remains a consistent player who has lost at the last 32 stage of a ranking event just three times during the past four seasons, and not at the Crucible since he played Ronnie O’Sullivan as a qualifier back in 2005. His ranking this season has also been slightly distorted by the arm injury which forced him to miss the season-opening Shanghai Masters and generally his form has been relatively good.

After a couple of quarter-final appearances during the last couple of seasons, Stephen is probably overdue a good run at the Crucible and if he can produce the form that he demonstrated at times during 2007 and 2008 at the venue, he will take some stopping and possibly have too much for Lee.

Furthermore while Lee is a very good player, he has not been ranked outside of the world’s top 16 for the past couple of season’s by accident and his form by and large has not been strong during that period. This was particularly evident at the Crucible last year when Ryan Day put him to the sword with a 10-4 victory, Lee’s third consecutive last 32 defeat at the venue.

Why Lee Will Win

While his form over the course of a season has not been consistently good enough recently, Stephen still has the quality and the experience to cause a shock on his day as he demonstrated on his way to the final of the Masters a couple of years ago.

His performance in qualifying to defeat Mike Dunn 10-2 was excellent and if he can maintain that level of scoring then he is more than capable of giving Stephen a run for his money, particularly if he can get off to a good start and put the Scot under some pressure. Maguire’s temperament has never been the best and if Lee were to establish a significant lead early on then he has the ability to see it through.

While not under any immediate pressure as far as his ranking is concerned, he is down in 28th place on the one-year list and could do with a good run here to set up an assault on the top 16 in a year’s time.

My Prediction

One of the more interesting round one ties I feel, Stephen Lee is definitely in with shout of causing an upset here and looking at the draw, possibly going on a good run at this year’s tournament.

The same also goes for Maguire however and while he has not enjoyed much success in recent times against snooker’s elite players, I feel that he will have too much for Lee at the Crucible and come through 10-8.

Match Ten: Peter Ebdon (14) vs Graeme Dott (28)

Just four years ago these two were to meet in what was a real slog of a World Championship final but now they are to face off at the last 32 stage as both players battle for a place in the top 16 next season…

Head to Head

As mentioned above, that 2006 World Championship final is by some margin the most memorable of the eight encounters between these two players but surprisingly, that match is the only one of them to be won by the Scot!

Their first meeting came way back at the Thailand Masters during the 1997/8 season as Peter ran out a 5-4 winner and he added further wins at the British Open and Regal Scottish Open tournaments during the 2000/1 season. A fourth win came at the 2002 Masters tournament at Wembley before he made it five from five at the Players Championship in 2004.

Then of course came that epic World Championship final in 2006 as Dott finally ended Peter’s winning streak with an 18-14 victory. Normal service was resumed however at the Pot Black tournament in 2006, albeit the match did last for just a single frame, before Peter recorded a 4-2 victory at the 2008 Malta Cup to lead their personal duel 7-1.

Crucible History

Peter:

1992 – QF, lost 13-7 to Terry Griffiths
1993 – R32, lost 10-3 to Steve Davis
1994 – R32, lost 10-6 to James Wattana
1995 – QF, lost 13-8 to Andy Hicks
1996 – F, lost 18-12 to Stephen Hendry
1997 – R32, lost 10-3 to Stefan Mazrocis
1998 – QF, lost 13-11 to Mark Williams
1999 – R32, lost 10-7 to Matthew Stevens
2000 – R32, lost 10-6 to Dominic Dale
2001 – QF, lost 13-6 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2002 – WINNER, defeated Stephen Hendry 18-17
2003 – QF, lost 13-12 to Paul Hunter
2004 – R32, lost 10-8 to Ian McCulloch
2005 – SF, lost 17-12 to Shaun Murphy
2006 – F, lost 18-14 to Graeme Dott
2007 – R16, lost 13-8 to Mark Selby
2008 – QF, lost 13-9 to Ali Carter
2009 – R32, lost 10-5 to Nigel Bond

Graeme:

1997 – R32, lost 10-9 to James Wattana
2000 – R32, lost 10-6 to Steve Davis
2001 – R32, lost 10-4 to John Higgins
2002 – R16, lost 13-2 to John Higgins
2003 – R16, lost 13-12 to Ken Doherty
2004 – F, lost 18-8 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2005 – R32, lost 10-9 to Ian McCulloch
2006 – WINNER, defeated Peter Ebdon 18-14
2007 – R32, lost 10-7 to Ian McCulloch
2008 – R32, lost 10-7 to Joe Perry
2009 – R16, lost 13-10 to Mark Selby

Season So Far

Despite not winning a ranking event title this time around, Peter has enjoyed a more consistent season in 2008/9 as he has reached the quarter-finals of two ranking events as well as the last 16 of the UK Championship. Perhaps more impressive however was his form during the Championship League as he made century breaks almost for fun and was unfortunate not to qualify for the winner’s group.

For Graeme the season has been solid as he has won five of his six qualifying matches but he has not been able to really push on further, winning just one match at a venue so far to leave his provisional ranking short of a top 16 place.

Why Peter Will Win

Despite last year’s reverse to Nigel Bond at the same stage of this event, Peter’s record at the Crucible is one to be envied and notwithstanding his relative decline during the past two or three seasons, nevertheless stands up quite well. His experience is invaluable and his will to win something that can never be questioned, particularly having now put his personal problems with his wife behind him.

For all the talk of his decline too, although he has not won a ranking event title this season as he did in China last year, his form this season has generally been improved (see above), and he should head to the Crucible better prepared than in 2009.

A further important factor is that Peter must win his match against Graeme if he is to stand any chance of retaining his long unbroken spell inside the world’s top 16. Following his Beijing success last year he spoke about how much this record means to him and he is not going to lose his status without putting up an almighty fight.

Finally while the head to head records are not always a reliable indicator, in this instance a 7-1 advantage is significant and suggests that Ebdon’s game causes Graeme particular problems.

Why Graeme Will Win

While Graeme’s head to head record with Peter is an obvious concern, it must be pointed out that the one time Graeme was able to triumph over his illustrious opponent was here at the Crucible in that infamous 2006 final. Psychologically that could be a factor and inspire Graeme to produce his best form against Peter in 2010.

Furthermore Graeme’s form has been reasonably good this year as he has twice beaten Ken Doherty and recently defeated Joe Perry at the Welsh Open. He also performed well at the venue last season against both Barry Hawkins and then Mark Selby who eventually came through their dramatic last 16 tie.

Finally the pressure that is on Peter Ebdon’s shoulders to retain his top 16 place could also be a negative factor for the 2002 champion and perhaps get the better of him.

My Prediction

If the 2006 final is anything to go by, this could have the makings of a long match, one that could go all the way to a deciding frame as both are real fighters and will have to be scraped off the table! Ultimately however I feel that Peter is the stronger player and needing to win to remain inside the top 16, I think that he will deliver. 10-9.

Match Eleven: Mark Allen (11) vs Tom Ford (49)

One player that I always make sure that I get a ticket to watch at the Crucible is the exciting world number 11 Mark Allen and having been drawn against another talented young player in the shape of Tom Ford I am looking forward to see if the Leicester pro can cause an upset this year…

Head to Head

Look away Tom Ford fans, this does not make particularly good reading for your man as Mark Allen leads the head to head 3-0.

The first two victories for Mark both came during the 2006/7 season as he ran out a 5-3 winner at the Northern Ireland Trophy before coming through 3-2 during their meeting at the round robin stage of the subsequent Grand Prix. Their most recent encounter came very recently in fact at the 2010 Welsh Open tournament, Mark taking five frames on the spin to complete a 5-2 win.

Crucible History

Mark:

2007 – R16, lost 13-9 to Matthew Stevens
2008 – R32, lost 10-9 to Stephen Hendry
2009 – SF, lost 17-13 to John Higgins

Tom:

Season So Far

Mark’s season so far has been up and down as he reached the semi-finals of the recent China Open and the quarter-finals of both the Welsh Open and the Grand Prix, but suffered last 32 defeats in the other two tournaments. His season in the Championship League was also bittersweet as he went all the way to the final and actually led 2-0 against Marco Fu before his opponent managed to turn the tables and deny him a place in the Premier League.

After a lean few years this has been the season which has seen Tom finally start to fulfil his potential as he has won his opening match in five of the six tournaments staged and reached the venue stage of three.

Why Mark Will Win

One of the most talented young players in the game, Mark has always been a player who has impressed me and never more so than at the Crucible where he has defeated Ken Doherty, Ronnie O’Sullivan and Ryan Day in recent years, not to mention that match against Stephen Hendry back in 2008 where he was unfortunate to lose out 10-9. Mark is a player who seems to thrive on the big occasion and back at the scene of his finest run to date I would not be surprised to see him produce the goods again in 2010.

Unlike last year Mark does not enter the tournament under any immediate pressure as far as the rankings are concerned which is something that could work in his favour, though in fairness it did not do him any harm last year!

Mark does enjoy a good record over Tom and importantly has experience of having beaten him recently following their Welsh Open meeting in January. He should enter the event full of confidence if his recent results are anything to go by and importantly I feel he is comfortable in front of the cameras, unlike Tom who has never really shone at the venue stage of an event.

It is also notable this this will be Tom’s first appearance at the Crucible and few players ever come to the Crucible and produce their best snooker first time out. One player who actually did buck this trend is Mark himself as he defeated Doherty back in 2007 but that type of performance is very much the exception to the norm and it remains to be seen whether Tom will follow in his footsteps.

Why Tom Will Win

You only have to look at the provisional and in particular the one-year rankings to see the progress that Tom has made this season, but the real evidence of his improvement was on display at the EISS at the start of the month as he brushed aside the highly-rated Judd Trump. In the past his temperament has been somewhat questionable and I saw this for myself in 2009 but this year he was transformed, fully in control and crucially he took his chances in fine style.

If he can translate this form to the big stage and to the Crucible then he has the game to cause Mark problems. Although Allen did reach the semi-finals of the China Open, he was not always at his best and at one point looked like he would exit the tournament at the hands of Stephen Hendry before the Scot began to make errors and became frustrated. If Mark in any way underestimates Tom then he could get more than he bargained for.

Also although Mark does hold a 3-0 head to head advantage over Ford, the world number 49 actually led their recent match in Newport 2-0 early on and on another day might have won that match. Their previous meetings were also close, 5-3 and 3-2 in Allen’s favour so the 3-0 figure in itself is perhaps slightly misleading.

My Prediction

As impressed as I have been with the progress of Ford this season, I feel that it is a big ask to expect him to come to the Crucible and see off someone as talented as Allen at his first attempt and though I would not rule out a Ford win, I shall guess at a 10-6 victory for the man from Antrim.

Match Twelve: Ryan Day (6) vs Mark Davis (47)

A quarter-finalist at the Crucible in both 2008 and 2009, Welshman Ryan Day begins his 2010 campaign against one of the most improved players on the tour recently, Mark Davis…

Head to Head

Ryan and Mark have not met during the past five years but judging by their previous meetings, Mark will be rather glad of the fact. Their first clash ended in a 5-0 victory for Ryan at the 1999/2000 China Open and their second match was almost as close in qualifying for the 2002 World Championship as the Welshman fired in four centuries to win 10-8.

Further wins came at the Scottish Open, the 2004 World Championship and most recently the John Smiths Merseyside Open 2004 as Ryan secured a 5-0 career lead at this stage.

Crucible History

Ryan:

2004 – R32, lost 10-9 to John Higgins
2006 – R16, lost 13-10 to Ronnie O’Sullivan
2007 – R32, lost 10-5 to Neil Robertson
2008 – QF, lost 13-7 to Stephen Hendry
2009 – QF, lost 13-11 to Mark Allen

Mark:

1994 – R32, lost 10-6 to Terry Griffiths
1995 – R16, lost 13-7 to Peter Ebdon
1997 – R32, lost 10-8 to Ken Doherty
2001 – R32, lost 10-5 to Stephen Hendry
2008 – R32, lost 10-3 to Mark Williams

Season So Far

Ryan’s season so far has been solid if not spectacular with runs to the quarter-finals of both the Shanghai Masters and the Welsh Open tournaments representing his best results of the campaign to date.

For Mark Davis however the season has been almost an unqualified success as not only has he regularly qualified for the venue stages of events to assure himself of a place inside the top 32 next season for the first time in his career, but he also took victory in the inaugural 6-Red World Championship last December.

Why Ryan Will Win

A quarter-finalist at the Crucible in each of the last two seasons as well as a three time ranking event finalist, Ryan has established himself as a member of the world’s top ten in recent years. With a break-building game as strong as anyone, Ryan is a player not to be underestimated and with good memories of the venue following his victory over defending champion John Higgins a couple of years ago, it would not be a surprise to see him run deep again.

While Mark Davis is a much improved player, particularly compared to a couple of years ago when he was soundly beaten at the same stage of the World Championship by Mark Williams, there remains a question mark over his ability to perform as well on television as he does in the cubicles at Prestatyn. His Crucible record of four last 32 defeats from five is not particularly encouraging either and if Ryan can start well, he might become demoralised.

Another factor that may play on Mark’s mind is his poor head to head record against Ryan as detailed above, particularly as two of those five defeats have come during this competition.

Why Mark Will Win

While Mark’s record against Ryan is a poor one, it must be pointed out that they have now not met in five years and since then, during the last couple in particular, Mark has improved significantly. Now up inside the top 32 and with wins over Marco Fu and Ding Junhui at venues during the past couple of seasons, this is a different Mark Davis and one not to be underestimated.

The same logic can be applied when looking at his Crucible record and if he can take into his match against Day the form he showed at the EISS recently against Barry Pinches and Dave Harold, Ryan could be in for a rough ride.

Ryan’s form whilst reasonable has had its low points too, a 9-3 defeat to Liang Wenbo at the UK Championship and a 5-0 defeat to Stephen Hendry at the China Open meaning that he heads to the Crucible in far from the best state of mind. If Mark can start well then who knows, maybe we could see another upset…

My Prediction

If this match were being played in a booth then I would be tipping Mark to cause an upset here but at the Crucible I feel that despite his vast improvement, Ryan should come through, a 10-7 winner.