Welsh Open 2012: Tournament Preview

This week sees the start of the Welsh Open as John Higgins looks to successfully defend the title that he has won during each of the past two seasons. Click below for my tournament preview, as well as my summary of all of the outstanding rankings issues ahead of the next seedings revision…

Click here to view the updated Welsh Open drawsheet
Click here to view the latest projected seedings

The final event prior to the seedings cut-off for the World Championship, the Welsh Open offers players the final chance to gain more precious ranking points, though in truth many of the battles have now already been settled during the qualifiers. The outstanding issues can be summarised as follows however:

The top 16 are set unless Mark Davis can reach the quarter-finals, with Stuart Bingham losing in the first round. Ronnie O’Sullivan is safe unless Davis can reach the semi-finals, with Bingham also winning his opener. If O’Sullivan can win his opening match then nothing less than a run to the final from Mark and a semi-final from Stuart will cause him concern.

The battle for the top 32 equation is also simple, as unless Michael Holt can progress to the final in Newport, there will be no change to the current standings with Ken Doherty currently 32nd.

Currently in 48th place, Jimmy White’s place inside the top 48 is secure unless Mark Joyce can overcome Shaun Murphy to reach the last 16 of the Welsh Open this week.

The top 64 battle meanwhile is also straight-forward, with only a run to the title from Sam Baird enough to move him into that bracket at the expense of Alfie Burden.

The Top Quarter

Heading the draw once again is Scotland’s John Higgins, who a year ago was to secure an emotional victory at the tournament following the death of his father and this year comes into the tournament looking to become the first man to win the Welsh Open during three consecutive seasons. Indeed by my count, he is looking to become the first man to win any ranking event during three straight seasons since Stephen Hendry last won the UK Championship back in 1996.

His form this season however has not been as strong as it was a year ago and he could have been handed an easier opening match than one against a match-sharp Liang Wenbo, the Chinese number two fresh from victories against David Gilbert and Rory McLeod in Sheffield. Having been in the wilderness 18 months after breaking into the top 16 for the first time, Liang has shown signs of improvement this season and will be hoping to improve on a 9-2 defeat to Higgins on their previous meeting at the 2009 UK Championship.

Whoever comes through will face the winner of the match between Ding Junhui and Mark Davis who meet in a repeat of their dramatic match at the same stage of the UK Championship in York last December. On that occasion it was Ding who managed to sneak through in a decider following a fluke on the final pink, but it was a match that could have gone either way and Ding’s form recently has been sketchy, opening round defeats at the Masters and German Masters meaning that he comes into this tournament looking for his first win of 2012.

That said, Ding remains a dangerous player irrespective of form and of course made two maximum breaks during December at the PTC events staged in Sheffield. As for Mark, he requires a run to at least the quarter-finals if he is to stand any chance of climbing up into the top 16 and securing an automatic place at the Crucible.

Elsewhere in this section, Stephen Lee awaits the winner of the match between Ryan Day and Michael Holt which has been held over to the venue stages, while Graeme Dott takes on Tom Ford in a repeat of their recent Shoot Out semi-final in Blackpool. While that match has little relevance in terms of the form book, Tom’s 4-0 victory against Graeme at the semi-final stage of the recent PTC11 event is of more interest, while Dott won their other PTC match this season in a deciding frame back in August.

The Second Quarter

Opening up the second section of the draw are Shaun Murphy and Mark Joyce, the latter having made it to his first venue of the season having struggled for results after his early Pink Ribbon success. Shaun Murphy meanwhile is a man in good form, having reached the final of the Masters last month as well as the semi-finals in Berlin last week only to suffer a surprise whitewash at the hands of Stephen Maguire.

The winner will play either Ali Carter or Steve Davis, who meet in a match where a number of observers are tipping an upset following Steve’s impressive win against Ricky Walden, particularly given Ali’s poor run of form in recent months.

While it is fair to say that Ali has struggled for consistency however, his scoring against Joe Perry in Germany recently was, on paper at least, impressive and Carter is too good a player not to turn it around at some point. The Captain also loves the venue having won his first ranking title here back in 2009, as well as reaching the final the following year and perhaps this will be his week.

Elsewhere, Mark Allen meets Ken Doherty in what given their history could be a spicy match, the 1997 world champion having come through against both Rod Lawler and Jamie Cope in qualifying this week. On paper the match has all the makings of a close one and I get the impression that much will depend on how Ken is able to play as his consistency is not at the level that it once was. Against Mark Williams in Germany recently he struggled badly throughout, but judging by the live scoring today he looked to be in fine scoring form and it will be interesting to see which Doherty we see in Newport.

The winner will meet either Neil Robertson or Stephen Hendry, who Championship League aside, last met at the Masters in 2011 when Robertson came through a 6-3 winner. The form player of 2011, despite his surprise defeat to Matthew Stevens in Berlin, Robertson will enter this match as the favourite, but Hendry has recently shown improvement in both his form and attitude and will be hoping to produce a performance at a venue where he made a 147 break a year ago.

The Third Quarter

Kicking off the third section of the draw is number one Welshman Mark Williams who is looking capture his home title for the first time since his 1999 deciding-frame triumph against Stephen Hendry.

This time he begins with a match against the experienced Andy Hicks, through to the last 32 of a full ranking event for the first time since the 2008 Shanghai Masters, though he did play at the venue here in Newport as recently as 2009 in a match against Matthew Stevens held over to the venue.

Without a run beyond the quarter-finals of his home tournament since he reached the final in 2003, if Williams can come through against Andy then he will meet either Ronnie O’Sullivan or Marco Fu at the last 16 stage, a stern test whoever comes through.

Coming into the tournament off the back of his German Masters triumph, Ronnie will be hoping to become the first man to win back to back ranking titles since he last achieved the feat back in 2008. He will have to be on his game from the start however as Marco is an opponent who down the years has enjoyed considerable success against him, winning on high-profile occasions such as the final of the Grand Prix in 2007 and at the Crucible Theatre in 2003. Marco also defeated Ronnie here in Newport as recently as 2009 when they at the last 16 stage.

That said, in Berlin O’Sullivan looked to be as focused and as determined to win as I have seen him in a long time and if he arrives in Wales with the same attitude, will prove difficult to stop. With his top 16 seeding for the Crucible almost secure, the pressure is off him to a degree which may also help his cause.

One of the players closest to him in the rankings is Stuart Bingham and he begins his tournament with a match against Mark King, who qualified with a 4-1 victory against Stoke’s Dave Harold yesterday. Having cracked the top 16 and looked poised to challenge for a place in the top eight earlier in the season, Stuart now finds himself in 16th place and not yet assured of an automatic seeding at the Crucible, although Ricky Walden’s qualifying defeat to Steve Davis has helped his cause.

In part Stuart’s predicament owes as much to bad timing as anything, as with few points to come off from the 2010 China Open and World Championship it is likely that at the end of the season he will be inside the top 16. That said, his early exit at the UK Championship together with a largely unremarkable PTC campaign has also been a factor and he will be hoping to turn that around in Newport.

Whoever can win will meet either Judd Trump or Fergal O’Brien, the latter having come from 3-1 down to qualify with a deciding frame victory against Mike Dunn yesterday. Back in 2005 it was Fergal who defeated Judd in his first professional match at the Grand Prix qualifiers, however Judd has come a long way since then and will be hoping to further strengthen his bid to become world number one at the end of the season with a deep run in Newport. Their last meeting came at the semi-final stage of the PTC2 event in Gloucester earlier this season when Judd recorded a 4-0 whitewash against his experienced opponent on his way to the title.

The Bottom Quarter

Heading up the bottom quarter meanwhile will be German Masters finalist Stephen Maguire and surprise qualifier Adam Wicheard who will be making his first appearance at this stage of a full-ranking event.

On paper everything would point towards a win for Maguire, who of course lost in the final here to John Higgins back in 2011, but it will be interesting to see how he prepared he is having been as visibly disappointed as he was following defeat to Ronnie O’Sullivan in Berlin and whether there is any sort of hangover for him. Wicheard too has nothing to lose, though it is never easy for any player not familiar with playing in front of the TV cameras to do so at this stage of a ranking event.

Awaiting the winner will be a clash with either Matthew Stevens or Shoot Out winner Barry Hawkins, the latter having qualified in style yesterday with breaks of 122 and 101 against Gerard Greene. With one win apiece against each other during last season’s PTC series, their recent history is too close to call and both having impressed in recent weeks, I would find it hard to split them.

Elsewhere in this section, Martin Gould will meet Peter Ebdon in a repeat of their 2010 World Open quarter-final, won on that occasion by Ebdon, who after a poor start to this season has shown signs of improvement recently by qualifying for the venue stages of both the German Masters and this tournament. Peter has also gained important match practice of late having reached the semi-final stages of groups four, five and six in this year’s Championship League, which is something that he was lacking earlier in the season having struggled for victories during the PTC events.

Gould though is the higher-ranked player and since that World Open defeat to Ebdon has turned the tables on him in both the PTC series and for what it is worth, the Shoot Out.

Last but not least, world number one and 2008 Welsh Open champion Mark Selby awaits the winner of the second match held over from qualifying between home favourite Dominic Dale and improving youngster Sam Baird, who has also qualified for the venue stages of the Haikou World Open in recent weeks. With his greater experience, particularly in front of the television cameras, Dominic will be favourite to come through that one, though Sam is not to be written off.

Looking at Selby,, he might be the world number one but in recent months the spark that earned him silverware in both Furth and Shanghai has been lacking. Earlier exits than expected at the UK Championship and Masters have led to question marks been raised, though it must also be remembered that he remains number two on the one-year ranking list and has plenty of matches under his belt this year having consistently won matches in the Championship League prior to his group six exit.

Selby is a player who seems to thrive when coming in somewhat under the radar and perhaps this will be his week to shine?