Latest Seedings List
As I am sure some of you will be sick of me repeating by now, the seedings for the World Championship and indeed the China Open will be determined following the ongoing Welsh Open tournament. With the venue stage to come, I take a look at who still has something more than the above trophy to play for next week…
The Top 16
While I often find the World Championship qualifiers to be some of the most enjoyable matches to watch each year, they must be up there with the worst for the players to play in given all that is at stake. For 16 of the circuit’s 96 professionals however they will be spared all of that tension as they will qualify for the Crucible as of right and for the first time ever we head into mid-February not knowing for sure who they will be.
The contenders are:
# | NAME | 2008/09 POINTS* | 2009/10 POINTS |
2010/11 POINTS** | GM |
WO |
Total |
14 | Jamie Cope |
5200 |
14220 | 13980 | 700 | 700 | 34800 |
15 | Ricky Walden | 4700 | 10230 | 15420 | 1900 | 700 | 32950 |
16 | Marco Fu | 4500 | 10360 | 12940 | 3200 | 1400 | 32400 |
17 | Stuart Bingham | 3375 |
11015 | 15385 | 575 | 1400 | 31750 |
21 | Mark King | 5700 | 14460 | 8545 | 700 | 700 | 30105 |
22 | Ryan Day | 8200 | 12160 | 7265 | 1400 | 575 | 29600 |
23 | Matthew Stevens | 1725 | 10715 | 15100 | 1400 | 575 | 29515 |
Ok so first things first, what can we say for sure?
Firstly, qualifying defeats today for Stephen Lee, Mark Davis and Andrew Higginson mean that they cannot now improve their positions ahead of the final seedings revision and so will have to qualify for the season’s remaining two tournaments. There is however hope for those around them as Stuart Bingham, Mark King, Ryan Day and Matthew Stevens can all still mathematically move up into the top 16, although for Ryan and Matthew nothing short of a run to the final would give them any sort of chance.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Jamie Cope will be safe if he wins his opening match and even if he does not, could only be knocked out by Ricky Walden and Marco Fu both reaching the semi-finals with Stuart Bingham going on to win the tournament.
Below that though is where it starts to get interesting. An opening round victory for Walden against Dave Harold should be enough to leave the former Shanghai Masters winner safe as then Marco would be required to reach the semi-finals and Stuart the final in order for them to move above him.
The most obvious battle therefore is that between Fu and Bingham, both winners in qualifying today and both through to the venue stage in Newport. What that does mean is that Stuart now faces a tough task to move up ahead of Marco as even if he were to defeat Mark Selby and see Fu lose to Mark Williams in the last 32, he would still have to win a further match to move above him in the rankings. Similarly, should Marco lose at the last 16 stage, Stuart would have to reach the semi-finals in order to pass him.
What about Mark King? He would have to reach at least the semi-finals and hope that Marco were to lose out in the last 32 in order to stand any sort of realistic chance.
For those wondering about Stephen Hendry, on the face of it he could be passed with a title for Stuart Bingham together with deep runs for Ricky Walden, Jamie Cope and Marco Fu. Upon closer inspection however, Marco and Jamie are poised to meet in the last 16 so both of them cannot earn the amount of points required to jump Stephen, leaving him safe for another year.
Prediction: No change, Cope, Walden and Fu to dodge the qualifiers
The Top 32
The contenders…
# | NAME | 2008/09 POINTS* | 2009/10 POINTS |
2010/11 POINTS** | GM |
WO |
Total |
31 | Dominic Dale | 1725 | 7990 | 11680 | 1900 | 1400 | 24695 |
32 | Marcus Campbell | 1350 | 9470 | 11810 | 575 | 1400 | 24605 |
34 | Nigel Bond |
5200 | 9225 | 6790 | 1400 | 1400 | 24015 |
35 | Rory McLeod | 3250 | 8910 | 8960 | 325 | 1400 | 22845 |
37 | Jamie Burnett | 3950 | 7250 | 8790 | 900 | 1400 | 22290 |
41 | Anthony Hamilton |
2550 | 7160 | 8640 | 1900 | 1150 | 21400 |
So again, what can see we see from the start? Firstly, Tom Ford, Robert Milkins, Mike Dunn, Fergal O’Brien and Steve Davis are all out of the running following their defeats in qualifying and so have been removed from the list.
With a gap between Marcus Campbell and the chasing pack it is immediately evident that Nigel Bond will need to make the quarter-finals, Rory McLeod the semi-finals, Jamie Burnett the final and Anthony Hamilton to win the title in order to stand any sort of chance. Having already seen Jamie reach one final this season however, nothing can be ruled out!
With all of these players having won their opening matches already, there are not so many points to gain as there are for those chasing top 16 places and so I would expect these positions to remain unchanged.
Prediction: No change, Dale and Campbell to remain
The Top 48
The contenders…
# | NAME | 2008/09 POINTS* | 2009/10 POINTS |
2010/11 POINTS** | GM |
WO |
Total |
46 | Mark Joyce |
975 | 7740 | 9685 | 900 | 450 | 19750 |
47 | Alan McManus | 2750 |
7040 | 8210 | 1150 | 450 | 19600 |
48 | Joe Swail | 3375 | 6215 | 6280 | 2500 | 1150 | 19520 |
50 | Dave Harold | 3050 | 5885 | 7920 | 1150 | 1400 | 19405 |
54 | Rod Lawler | 3200 | 7975 | 5720 | 325 | 1400 | 18620 |
56 | Jack Lisowski | 1463 | 5040 | 8700 | 1400 | 1400 | 18003 |
58 | Jimmy White | 1500 | 4870 | 9215 | 900 | 1150 | 17635 |
Moving on, the battle for top 48 spots has come down to the above players, interestingly with those currently occupying the three places all already out of the tournament and unable to mount a counter-attack to any potential challengers.
Of the three, Mark Joyce will only be denied in the event that both Rod Lawler and Jack Lisowski win through to meet each other in semi-final one, an unlikely prospect given the quality of some of the other names in that section I would imagine.
Similarly, Alan McManus looks to be fairly secure as while a win for Dave Harold against Ricky Walden would leave him on the edge in 48th, it would still take one of either a quarter-final from Lawler, a semi-final from Lisowski or a run to the final from Jimmy White to deny him.
Joe Swail however will be sweating now and hoping that Dave Harold cannot progress beyond the last 32 or that one of the other events mentioned in the paragraph above does not happen.
Prediction: Again, status quo to be resumed, although a Harold win against Walden would not be too big a shock. Still, Joyce, McManus and Swail to survive.
The Top 64
Nothing to see here!
So after all the build-up, I am predicting that there will be no significant change to the seedings next week in Newport, the damage having already been done in qualifying. We shall see if that is how it pans out…