Hot on the heels of the previous weekend’s German Masters tournament, this week sees the start of the 2011 Welsh Open qualifiers which take on added significance this year as not only will they decide who makes it through to Newport, but also how the players will be seeded for the all-important World Championship qualifiers next month…
Click here to view the tournament draw in full.
Also note that for this event, all qualifying matches will be staged over the best of seven frames with no mid-session interval.
The Top Quarter
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| Liam Highfield | – | Jack Lisowski | – | Fergal O’Brien | – | Martin Gould | – |
| Joe Delaney | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
The top section of the draw begins with a clash between promising youngster Liam Highfield and Irish veteran Joe Delaney, two players whose careers appear to be heading in opposite directions. Currently lying in 67th place on my list, Liam is a player who with a couple of wins this week could well move up into the top 64 in time for the World Championship qualifiers, meaning that he would have one match fewer to play in order to reach the Crucible. Delaney though looks to have to too much to do, currently sitting in 80th.
My gut feeling would be to back Highfield in this match but having qualified for the Shanghai Masters earlier this season, Delaney cannot be written off.
The winner will face Jack Lisowski in the second round and if that is to be Highfield it would be a repeat of their many clashes during the PIOS last series. Both players are on the up and whoever wins will be faced with a tough clash against Fergal O’Brien, a player who returned to form in 2010 following a poor run previously and now sits safely inside the top 48. Recent defeats to Adam Wicheard and Barry Hawkins however have probably left him with too much to do if he is to reclaim a top 32 place in the near future.
While both Jack and Liam are talented young players, I would favour Fergal to win his opening match and book a final round tie with Martin Gould. That said (and this applies to all of the matches really), the shorter format does make the outcome somewhat more unpredictable and could favour the underdogs.
What of Martin Gould? During the last 18 months he is probably the most improved player on the tour and despite his surprising 5-0 defeat to Joe Swail at the German Masters qualifiers, should be confident of progressing. Hopefully from his point of view that was a one-off and he will make it to his fourth venue of the season, though that would not in itself be enough for a top 16 place.
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| Andrew Pagett | – | Dave Harold | – | Mike Dunn | – | Liang Wenbo | – |
| Kuldesh Johal | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Moving on, the second line sees Andrew Pagett and Kuldesh Johal face off in the opening match, both looking to reach their first venue but neither within range of a top 64 place. Their third meeting this season having previously won one each, I would nevertheless back Andrew to progress having previously shown the better form so far this season during the PTC events.
Next up for the winner will be Dave Harold, a player who has fallen down the rankings this season but who has a significant amount of experience and knows that he must win if he is to stand a chance of moving back into the top 48 ahead of the World Championship qualifiers.
Win I think he will and there he would face Mike Dunn, a player who is coming into this week on the back of arguably the best tournament of his career, the Sky Shootout. Mike probably has too much to do if he is to move back into the top 32 by the end of this tournament but he has been fairly consistent this season and if he does play Harold, it will be a very tough match to call.
Awaiting the winner will be Liang Wenbo, a player who has flown somewhat below the radar this season having fallen out of the top 16 at the first rankings revision. Liang did thrash Dave once at the World Championship qualifiers and is capable of outscoring anybody, but he has had no form to speak of whatsoever so far this season and could be one one of the more vulnerable seeded qualifiers in the draw. Hard to call without having seen him in so long but losses to Nigel Bond and Rory McLeod in recent events do not bode well for the Chinese number two.
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| James McBain | – | Jimmy White | – | Robert Milkins | – | Ryan Day | – |
| Justin Astley | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
One of the more interesting paths of this draw, the first round sees James McBain taken on Justin Astley in what on paper looks to be a fairly even match. Either way, the winner will be the underdog in the next round against the Whirlwind of London Town, Jimmy White, who will be looking to qualify for Newport for the first time since 2009.
Jimmy faces a real task however as if he wins his opener, he will then meet Sky Shootout finalist Robert Milkins who during the past couple of seasons has shown much improved form compared to that since his post 2005 slump. Both under the On Q Promotions banner, at least one man will be happy either way, manager Paul Mount!
The winner will play Ryan Day who having struggled for form during 2009-10, is now looking to move back up the rankings and can consider himself unfortunate to have lost a couple of close matches against Shaun Murphy in recent tournaments. It is likely that this match will be held over to the venue though as there is scope for two such matches involving Welshmen to be staged at Newport.
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| David Morris | – | Bjorn Haneveer | – | Anthony Hamilton | – | Matthew Stevens | – |
| T.T’boon | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Line four sees David Morris and young Thanawat Thirapongpaiboon meet up in an interesting first round match, Morris a professional for some years now who is struggling to keep his place on the tour, Thirapongpaiboon the young star who recently qualified for his maiden venue stage at the German Masters. David is the more experienced of the two but having slipped to 72nd in the latest projected seedings list, he has been short of form this season and I could see the young Thai player winning this one.
In the second round the winner will face Bjorn Haneeveer who is currently fighting hard to stay in the top 64 heading into the World Championship qualifiers. Currently 63rd, this is a must-win match for him following early defeats in the UK Championship and German Masters qualifiers and he will surely be aware of that.
Either way, the winner will face Nottingham’s Anthony Hamilton in the last 64, a player who as demonstrated by his recent victory over Neil Robertson at the German Masters and consistent results in the PTC, is enjoying the extra opportunities afforded to him by the increase in tournaments this season. He has lost a few qualifiers this season for the bigger events but I would expect him to come through this one and set up an intriguing last 48 tie with Matthew Stevens.
Matthew has this season looked to be in as good form as he has done at any point during the past five years and having won all of his qualifiers so far this season will be looking to keep up his good run. As with the match involving Ryan Day, I would expect this match to be held over to the venue stage which again should be in his favour, although Anthony did reach the semi-finals in Newport a couple of years ago so would appear to be comfortable in Newport.
The Second Quarter
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| Igor Figueiredo | – | Andy Hicks | – | Barry Pinches | – | Barry Hawkins | – |
| Paul Davies | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Onto the second quarter and the first round sees Brazilian Igor Figueiredo taking on Welsh veteran Paul Davies, or at least he should assuming that Paul chooses to compete having missed the German Masters. While Igor might not have set the world alight recently, Paul has had little in the way of form for some time now and will have to enter the Q School this summer if he is to stand any chance of retaining his professional status into next season.
Lying in wait in the next round will be Andy Hicks who I think has left himself with too much to do if he is to move into the top 48 for the world qualifiers. Having had a reasonable season to this point I would expect Andy to beat either Igor or Paul, but the fact that he is ranked outside of the top 50 shows that he does not always win when he is expected to.
Next up will be Norwich pro Barry Pinches who having started the season in brilliant form during the PTC’s, has suffered something of a slump recently and needs a win here if he is to maintain his top 48 position. Generally speaking I would fancy Barry to win, but recent losses against Kyren Wilson, Dave Gilbert and Liu Song in ranking events do not bode too well.
The top seed here is another Barry, this time Hawkins who has enjoyed a solid, if not spectacular start to the season so far. We have not seen too much of him recently but I would fancy him to qualify here and rubberstamp his place inside the top 32.
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| Liu Chuang | – | Anthony McGill | – | Dominic Dale | – | Mark Davis | – |
| Zhang Anda | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
While the above quarter involves a number of players who are not in the best of form at the moment, this one is the opposite and it is a shame that just one of the five involved will be able to make it through to Newport.
The first round match sees an all-Chinese showdown as Liu Chuang takes on Zhang Anda, the man who raised eyebrows on his way to the Crucible last season but has since done very little on the professional circuit. The Mighty Mouse as he is nicknamed remains a talented young player but I do fancy the 20-year-old Chuang to come through and win this one and keep his hopes of a top 64 place alive.
Whoever wins will progress to a tie with Anthony McGill, another talented young player who recently made his TV debut in the Sky Shootout as well as making an appearance at the German Masters where he lost out to a dazzling Mark Williams. Up in 53rd on my provisional list, McGill will comfortably remain inside the top 64 for the world qualifiers and will be looking make another venue.
Either of the three young guns though will not make it to Newport easily as both Dominic Dale and Mark Davis are players armed with a wealth of experience and who have both shown strong form this season. For Dale, currently 33rd on my list, there is a place inside the top 32 seedings at stake for the world qualifiers while Mark in 19th will be looking to break into the top 16 for the first time in his career. A lot at stake then for all involved and a tough opening match for Peter Ebdon in Newport whoever is successful!
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| David Gilbert | – | Rod Lawler | – | Mark Joyce | – | Judd Trump | – |
| Jak Jones | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
The first match here sees David Gilbert take on young Welshman Jak Jones, two players not close to a place inside the top 64 and who will simply want to make it through to the venue stage. Young Jak has struggled to make an impact on the tour this season but Gilbert having struggled for a long time, returned to some sort of form at the UK Championship qualifiers, defeating Issara Kachaiwong, Andy Hicks and Barry Pinches before going down 9-4 against Stephen Lee in the final qualifying round.
The winner will take on Rod Lawler, the veteran Scouser having experienced an inconsistent season and a slight drop in ranking having done little during the PTC events. Next up will be Mark Joyce, the surprise UK Championship quarter-finalist while Judd Trump awaits in the final round.
As I have noted a few times on here recently, Judd is a player who remains young and has time on his side, but despite an upturn in form this season is certainly due to run deep into a ranking event having struggled to do so since his Grand Prix semi-final back in 2008. Could this be the tournament that sees him do so? Possibly, although Mark did beat him in Telford, Judd has performed well in qualifiers this season and I think he will come through this one.
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| Qualifying Round One | Qualifying Round Two | Qualifying Round Three | Qualifying Round Four | ||||
| Michael Judge | – | Joe Jogia | – | Steve Davis | – | Marcus Campbell | – |
| Reanne Evans | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Finally in this section, the first round sees Michael Judge, winless this season other than a couple of victories during the PTC, take on Reanne Evans who hasn’t even got those! She could well get her first points on the board here though, Judge having not played during the last ranking event which must raise questions as to his participation here.
Whoever does come through that one will face Joe Jogia in the next round, Joe having performed very well during the PTC events but less so during the major ranking events other than the World Open. Still, I would be surprised to see him lose to either Judge or Evans and he should win through to a clash with six-time world champion Steve Davis whose form is always difficult to predict these days. If he has been practising and is up for this one then there is no reason why Steve cannot win, but sometimes if his preparation is not quite right, he can lose quite heavily…
The winner will play Marcus Campbell in the final qualifying round, the Scot currently in the best period of his career to date and looking to maintain his place inside the top 32 come the next seedings revision. At first glance you would expect him to win, but on closer inspection he has lost his opening qualifiers at each of the last two major events. Do these things come in threes?